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By J. O. N. Perkins (auth.)

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1) suggest that a monetary expansion is the one with least upward effect on the average level of prices over the five years; but for that country, as for all the other countries, income tax cuts are in this sense less inflationary than are increases in government outlays financed in the same way. 1) for the US a monetary expansion appears to be less inflationary for a given effect on employment than government outlays with interest rates or money held constant. If the criterion is the effect on prices for a given effect on unemployment (rather than employment), the conclusion from these simulations (details of which are not included here) is that a cut in income tax scores better than a rise in government outlays for all countries; and the margin of the comparative advantage of income tax cuts over increases in government outlays is greater on this criterion than for employment for all countries other than the US.

2 also show, in two of the countries covered - the US and Canada - the effect on the average level of prices over the five-year period ofthe accommodated form of both types of fiscal stimulus tested (for a given effect on output) is less than is the bond-financed alternative. For the rest of the countries the accommodated form of a fiscal stimulus exerts more upward Empirical Evidence 27 pressure on prices over the course of the period than when the same form of fiscal stimulus is financed by bond sales (that is, with the quantity of money held constant).

It also appears to be likely that fiscal measures of expansion are less inflationary for a given real stimulus if they are bond-financed than if they are accommodated by monetary policy directed at holding down interest rates. But Canada, and perhaps the US, may be exceptions to these two conclusions, at least in part. Outside North America, however, some combination of tight monetary policy with fiscal stimulus -especially if the fiscal stimulus is bond financed, and if it takes the form of a tax cut - is likely to be available that will both stimulate real output and employment and also tend to reduce prices.

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