By Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, and Sensory Sciences Board on Behavioral Cognitive, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council, Visit Amaz
The intelligence group (IC) performs a necessary position within the nationwide safety of the USA. choice makers depend upon IC analyses and predictions to lessen uncertainty and to supply warnings approximately every thing from overseas diplomatic relatives to abroad conflicts. In ultra-modern advanced and swiftly altering international, it truly is extra very important than ever that analytic items be exact and well timed. spotting that desire, the IC has been actively looking how you can enhance its functionality and extend its capabilities.
In 2008, the workplace of the Director of nationwide Intelligence (ODNI) requested the nationwide examine Council (NRC) to set up a committee to synthesize and check facts from the behavioral and social sciences suitable to analytic tools and their capability program for the U.S. intelligence neighborhood. In Intelligence research for the next day to come: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC bargains the Director of nationwide Intelligence (DNI) techniques to handle a few of the IC's challenges.
Intelligence research for Tomorrow asserts that the most vital issues that the IC can research from the behavioral and social sciences is the way to symbolize and evaluation its analytic assumptions, tools, applied sciences, and administration practices. Behavioral and social clinical wisdom can assist the IC to appreciate and enhance all stages of the analytic cycle: the best way to recruit, opt for, teach, and encourage analysts; how one can grasp and installation the main appropriate analytic equipment; the way to set up the day by day paintings of analysts, as members and groups; and the way to speak with its clients.
The record makes 5 large options which supply sensible how you can follow the behavioral and social sciences, so as to deliver the IC enormous fast and longer-term advantages with modest bills and minimum disruption.
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Additional resources for Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences
Teams Much IC analysis is done by teams or groups. Here, too, behavioral and social science research has identified ways to improve learning, by taking advantage of the shared knowledge that group members can contribute if their work is organized effectively. For example, teams’ productivity depends on their composition and decision-making procedures. Diversity in members’ knowledge can be very helpful (Page, 2007) if their specialization is recognized (Austin, 2003; see also Hastie, 2011). Decision making can be more effective if “unblocking” techniques allow members to develop novel solutions, achieving a balance between creative thought and undisciplined speculation.
Just knowing about these distinctions can limit naïve interpretations, such as giving too much credit to investment advisers who predicted a market crash, without knowing how many times they had erroneously predicted crashes. , 2000). Teams Much IC analysis is done by teams or groups. Here, too, behavioral and social science research has identified ways to improve learning, by taking advantage of the shared knowledge that group members can contribute if their work is organized effectively. For example, teams’ productivity depends on their composition and decision-making procedures.
1982). , 2004; Weiss and Shanteau, 2003). For example, Slovic and Fischhoff (1977) and Arkes et al. (1988) found that hindsight bias could be reduced by requiring individuals with outcome knowledge to explain how they would have predicted other outcomes. Arkes et al. (1988) implemented this simple “debiasing” procedure with physicians, who were required to list reasons that each of several possible diagnoses might have been correct, before assessing the probabilities that they believe that they would have given in foresight.